The Pollcast: Rachel Notley’s re-election hopes look grim

In as little as three months, Albertans could be in the midst of an election campaign. And the numbers look tough for Premier Rachel Notley.

The New Democrats stunned the political world by unseating a decades-old Progressive Conservative government in Alberta in May 2015. The province is scheduled to go to the polls again next year within an election window that runs from Mar. 1 to May 31, but it appears that another stunning upset would be needed to prevent Jason Kenney’s United Conservative Party from taking power.

A new poll conducted by ThinkHQ Public Affairs between Nov. 21 and 26, based on interviews of 1,102 Albertans online, finds the UCP leading with 50 per cent support among decided voters. The NDP trails with 35 per cent. The Alberta Party and provincial Liberals trail with nine and five per cent support, respectively.

The poll found 21 per cent of respondents to be undecided. A probabilistic sample of this size would yield a margin of error of +/- three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Marc Henry, president of ThinkHQ Public Affairs, joins Pollcast host Éric Grenier to discuss the findings of his latest Alberta poll, breaking down where things stand in the province and whether Notley has a path to re-election in 2019. He also weighs the odds that Justin Trudeau’s Liberals will be able to retain the four seats they won in the province in the last federal election.

Marc Henry, president of ThinkHQ Public Affairs, breaks down the provincial and federal landscape in Alberta ahead of next year’s elections. 20:34

Listen to the full discussion above — or subscribe to the CBC Pollcast and listen to past episodes of the show.

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